Wednesday, June 1 2016 05:01

 The May 25 night on the Karabakh-Azerbaijan line of contact was calm for the first time after the March 1 Azerbaijani sabotage attack against Levonarkh. Can we say this was due to the meeting of the Presidents and the OSCE co-chair countries’ representatives in Vienna?  

 

I do not think that this became possible due to the Vienna negotiations. There is an eloquent expression - 'If you don't want the problem to be resolved, set up a commission'. If there are many people with their own interests, it is always hard to make a decision. I think it is for the conflicting parties to reach a compromise. Others - including the OSCE Minsk Group - have nothing to do here. In this light, I consider the comparative calm on the line of contact in the light of the Russia-US arrangements rather than in the context of negotiations of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in Vienna.  Therefore, I think this calm situation will not last long. I suppose the positions of Washington and Moscow have been brought closer to each other to the greatest extent possible for the first time in the history of the Karabakh conflict. The United States seems to have put up with the fact that Russia is the moderator in this region. In the meantime, the Israeli-US tandem still has fears about the situation on the Karabakh-Iran border, given Iran's potential threat to Israel and, consequently, to the US. Artsakh and Armenia are actually the only countries surrounding Iran, which have no US servicemen in their territories. As regards the Israeli-Azerbaijani overtures, they are first of all aimed at strengthening the US and Israeli military presence in the territory of Azerbaijan. 

 

The April aggression of Azerbaijan, along with the heroism and resoluteness of our 18-year-old guys once again demonstrated the real nature of General Manvels, Liskas and others, who hide their thievish nature behind pseudo-patriotism. Do you think we have drawn the right conclusions?     

 

No, I don’t. However, we see that it is the Armenian soldiers that demonstrated the best qualities of our nation. The soldiers, not the generals. I have perfectly known our army both in Armenia and in Artsakh since the day of its establishment and I can say that our generals – except for 1 or 2 names – are underqualified. For instance, the Chief of the General Staff Khachaturov, who was my direct commander when we were liberating Karvachar, is good at alcohol drinks but has zero knowledge about military art. In France, our deputy minister of defense, General Haykaz Bakhmanyan would be entrusted with a doorkeeper's position at a suburban hotel at best. Unfortunately, there are numerous such examples. I do not understand how such a critically important structure as the army established in the 1990s by the self-denying efforts of true patriots can contain so many good-for-nothing people. Later, such “generals” in our army established a criminal hierarchy that has nothing to do with the ideas of its heroes such as Leonid Azgaldyan. The conscripts would join the army in dread of the officers. The number of deaths as a result of military hazing in our armed forces best of all demonstrates the moral and psychological condition of the army. Based on my own observations, I can state that many conscripts were afraid of their commanders. Therefore, the whole-hearted bravery of our soldiers, their accurate implementation of their duties during the April aggression of Azerbaijan evoked my great surprise. Azerbaijanis estimated all they could estimate about our army and its combat positions, but they failed to take into account the heroism and the never-say-die spirit of Armenian soldiers defending their Motherland. They could not simply imagine it. I assure you if we unleashed the aggression, their youth would leave their combat positions and would run for dear life. The real nature of Armenians was demonstrated in the moral and psychological situation of the April war, when Artsakh, Armenia and Diaspora did everything to support our heroes. It is these Armenians, these heroes that the authorities consistently strangle both in Armenia and in Artsakh. The dark forces are simply not interested in manifestation of the true colors of Armenia.

 

The dark forces outside Armenia?

 

The dark forces that have been in Armenia for a long time. Any force that turns us into debtors and gives us grants is dark for me. I am from Europe and I am quite well aware what “international financial organizations” do in Armenia and what they did in France. It is these forces that use material resources to really manage our country with the hands of the Armenians, who have usurped the power in Armenia. The only value for any man in power in Armenia is money. Consequently, on behalf of Armenia, he will do everything for money to please any foreigner. The majority – our society – is on the opposite side of the barricade. Just because our civil society is inconsistent, these usurpers are selling out our country to the foreign forces. My biggest dream is that our society could have the self-awareness of the French society for an hour. Within that hour the authorities in Armenia would be swept off; they would flee and beg for political asylum somewhere in the UAE or Russia, because no civilized country would give shelter to such people.

 

In other words, it is our fault that we have some problems…

 

Certainly, it is. It is also my fault and I beg my people’s pardon for at least the fact that our army has such generals. 

 

Armenia’s stand on the Karabakh conflict settlement contains more questions than answers. Is it because of the love for financial means again?

 

Armenia has never had its own stand on Karabakh settlement. Since 1988 when the "Karabakh" committee was established and till now I have never heard personally from any of the officials a clear stand on Armenia's expectations from the Karabakh process. There is a whole bunch of contradicting decisions from the "Miatsum" movement to the exercise of Karabakh people's right of self-determination. And it is not clear why the issue of self-determination is raised in Yerevan and not in Artsakh. In this context, the only positive provision set in the ceasefire agreements signed in May 1994 is the signature of Commander of Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army Samvel Babayan. Armenia should only support the exercise of Nagorno-Karabakh's right to self-determination instead of participating in the process as a party. This is the only right concept reflecting the interests of all Armenians.

 

That would be in a perfect world. But we speak of the reality, where it is not clear what our authorities want to gain from the peace process…

 

Taking into consideration the fact that for already 20 years the process has been developing behind the closed doors and the authorities do not account to the society for this process, the society in its turn should not care about the authorities' expectations. And the Armenian soldiers did it in early April by carrying out their duties properly and giving a slap in the face of first and foremost the Armenian authorities and then the Azerbaijani ones. It is clear that maintaining of de-facto situation in Artsakh will not turn it into a de-jure one. Thus, if we stand for the exercise of Karabakh people’s right to self-determination and Artsakh's joining Armenia, the world will not understand this. Thus, the Armenian authorities' only goal in negotiations on Karabakh is to retain their own power. And for this reason the authorities leverage on the Karabakh problem all the time in their domestic policy both in Armenia and Artsakh. The same situation is in Azerbaijan, where Aliyev's clan retains the power due to the Karabakh issue.

 

This suggests the conclusion that the unresolved Karabakh problem is more beneficial both for Baku and Yerevan that the resolve problem.

 

The non-settlement is a guarantee of the authorities' long-term power.  That is why the authorities are not interested even in such settlement, which is beneficial for the societies.

 

It seems that the resignation of negotiator Davutoglu, actual failure of the Turkey-EU agreement on readmission of migrants from the Middle East, growing Islamization of the country, regular attempts to politically blackmail Brussels have eventually crossed out the European prospects of Turkey. What consequences may it have for Armenia?     

 

The major part of Turkey’s population seriously lags behind modern civilization. Islam keeps paying a crucial role here. That’s the objective reality that forms the current foreign policy of Turkey. The Arabs from Maghreb countries, despite their backwoods mentality, are much more advanced that the Turks from Turkish backwoods. Europe also understands this. It also realizes the impossibility of Turkey’s accession to the EU. It is only the idea of human rights strengthened by Turkey’s NATO membership that makes Europe continue the European games with Ankara. These games have lasted for over 60 years and will last for 60 more years. However, Recep Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, which has had a real power monopoly since 2002, is trying to change the game rules today. For 2.5 years Erdogan has been an independent regional player blackmailing Americans with Islamisation, which will turn Turkey into a second Iran for the United States. In other words, it would be a union of Iranian Shiites and Turkish Sunnis in the fight against common evil – the US. This is what the head of the NATO member state says. In response, the US has long been trying to impose an alternative policy on Ankara through Fethullah Gülen, a preacher of moderate Islam, who lives in Pennsylvania. In other words, the US was creating and preparing its own Khomeini for an Islamic revolution in Turkey. It is Erdogan’s AKP that put an end to such plans. Nevertheless, I do not rule out Gülen’s reanimation in case Americans fail the talks with Erdogan to make Turkey an obedient NATO member state again. In that case, the US will try to do everything to split the AKP and create an opposition wing of the party headed by Abdullah Gul, Ahmet Davutoglu, Ali Babacan and Bülent Arınç – the politicians that have failed to find common ground with Erdogan. Erdogan still manages to resist the foreign challenges by demanding the impossible to go the limit. This formula is still effective in the relations with the US, Israel and now Russia. The escalation in Artsakh was also the direct result of Ankara-Moscow arrangements. Like in 1921, Turkey is trying to get concessions from Russia at the expense of Armenia, which is not an independent factor for Russia.

 

What interest does Russia have in concessions to Turkey at the expanse of Armenia, especially given the unfavorable consequences of the 1921 deal with Mustafa Kemal?   

 

Ankara and Baku are guided by their own interests in the relations with Russia, unlike the authorities of Armenia, which totally obey Moscow. Due to supporting ISIS in Syria and enlarging that threat, Turkey held the US and Europe, which allowed it to shoot down the Russian aircraft. So, it tested the capacities of Russia, which proved to be mostly unable to decide anything in Syria. However, following that test, the need arose to resume the dialogue with Russia and this was done with the help of Azerbaijan, which unleashed the April aggression, to which Moscow simply had to react. Azerbaijan, in turn, agrees to join the EEU in exchange for getting Artsakh. Turkey supports Azerbaijan and blackmails Moscow by supporting the Russian Muslims’ striving for self-determination in certain entities of the Russian Federation. Artsakh is again the price for loyalty. This is why Russia provoked the April war to demonstrate the sheer loneliness of Armenia.

 

Yes, but there is also a “red line” for Moscow here, given that the final betrayal against Artsakh and Armenia does not at all meet the Russian interests.

 

Yes, it does not meet the Russian interests, because in that case Turkey and Azerbaijan will inevitably ask Russia to leave the region. Moscow perfectly realizes this. However, there is also the hegemony of the US-Israel tandem, and Putin’s Russia is trying to resist it, even by flailing fists in Karabakh. Amid the doubtless importance of the South Caucasus for the leading global actors, Armenia must finally play its own role in the geopolitical processes around our region. The reality is that Moscow always needs an Armenian key to unlock anything in the South Caucasus. And Armenia should stop giving that key to Russia for free. Armenia can perfectly find common ground with both Azerbaijan and Turkey without Russia’s mediation, which costs so much. Certainly, it is not profitable for Russia, therefore it prefers to maintain the fire in Karabakh, regularly intimidating us with a Turkish yataghan. We demonstrated in Artsakh that we can defend ourselves. If needed, we can also demonstrate it in Turkey by somewhat different methods.

 

Here the involvement of Islamized Armenians of Western Armenia are a geopolitical factor…

 

Indeed. The US department of State has quite a serious project on Turkey’s demise. The plan envisages establishment of Kurdistan and Western Armenia. Our and not only our authorities are informed about this plan. The USA has several such plans. Washington clearly realizes that Turkey is an artificial state by the way established by Lenin’s efforts. In case of implementation of Turkey’s demise plan, participation of Islamised Armenians and Armenia is inevitable. The USA is better aware of the existence of millions of ethnic Armenians on Turkey’s territories. “Only three nations in the world - Armenians, Jews and Arabs - may have such a disease as “Armenian disease”, which is by mistake called “Yerevan disease” in Armenia. 650 thousand carriers of this disease are registered in the Healthcare Ministry of Turkey and the Turks call this disease “Mediterranean Fever” for obvious reasons. However, all these patients have relatives. Only one in 11-12 suffers this disease among Armenians. In this light, we can state that there are at least 5 million ethnic Armenians in Turkey. This is a serious geopolitical factor, which along with the factor of 15 million of Kurds may play a serious geopolitical role.

 

Yes, but these people should perceive themselves as Armenians. Are they ready to return to their identity?

 

They are already on this route. A Union of Armenians of Turkey already operates in Diarbeqir with the permission of Kurdish local authorities. The children from nearby villages learn the Armenian language there. Similar unions and Armenian language courses are organized in Mush, Dersim and Hamshen. This is only part of information I can openly present. If you just visit Western Armenia, meet the first passerby and tell him the word “ermeni”, he/she will accompany you to a house where a family of Islamized Armenians lives. Indeed, our compatriots are the most active social group in the Turkish and Kurdish societies on these territories. And these people will be actively returning to their identity. The USA and Canada clearly know this but Armenia does not want to realize it. And finally Alawite Turks, Alawite Kurds, Alawite Zazas and Alawite Arabs live in the center of Turkey, the total number of which is between 18 and 20 million people. These people sharply differ from Sunni Turks and Shia Turks by their high level of culture and social activity and play significant role in the governance of the country. That is why the internal conflict in Turkey will one day develop between Alawites and Sunnis. And Turkish Alawites may be the only potential ally for Armenians. This is the geopolitical situation around Turkey and the future depends on events, which will happen also by leveraging on the “Armenian Cause”.          

 

But given the current nature of the Armenian authorities, such a geopolitical combination may lead to new problems for Armenia…

 

It also depends on Armenia how the “Armenian Cause” will be used, however the country currently does not function as a factor in the region. But we are obliged to become a regional factor, taking into consideration that in the current complex situation having no such a goal means to be stuck with label of incapacity. And in my opinion, urgent shift of power in the country is the only rescue for Armenia. This will be done without bloodshed or regular elections. I think that the shift of power will be done outside the electoral processes and will be the only way out for the country from geopolitical deadlock. In this light, it is not so important who will represent the new political forces that will gain the power before the elections. The most important thing is that these forces will receive an opportunity to refuse the obligations of their predecessors and to launch negotiations on Karabakh afresh. Only in such a case, Armenia will act as a factor. In Artsakh this problem has a simpler solution: for example Vitaly Balasanyan may be appointed as Commander of the NKR Defense Army. This diplomatic step will automatically lead to change of priorities in the negotiation process as oppositionist general Balasanyan may not agree with this or that decision of Yerevan imposed on it for instance by Moscow. This is just one of the options which any normal power should have in consideration and use if necessary. Today it is the right moment for Serzh Sargsyan’s resignation as the society’s disregard of him has reached the highest level.

 

So, would he follow his Western counterparts’ example and “reset” by washing hands off in this complex situation?

 

Definitely. Only in this case, he would manage to leave the game with no significant losses for the Armenian statehood. And it is the high time for such “reset”.