ArmInfo. The OSCE embargo on arms supplies to the parties to the Karabakh conflict will limit Moscow's ability to manipulate Armenia and Azerbaijan. Such an opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Eduard Abrahamyan, a researcher at the Department of International Relations and Security at the University of Leicester (United Kingdom), an expert at the Washington based Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, part of the American Foreign Policy Council.
" Today Russia considers Armenia as a springboard of its own striving for regional hegemony and an integral part of its Caucasian security architecture. Accordingly, having lost its presence in Armenia, Russia will lose the opportunity to dominate the Caucasus. Moreover, if Yerevan conducts a more balanced foreign policy, Moscow's ability to project power from the Caucasus to the Black Sea region will also face additional restrictions ", he believes.
In this light, Moscow, according to the analyst, considers the arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a tool for consolidating its own domination over both conflicting countries. And having voiced in Yerevan the readiness to supply American armaments with the aim of "increasing the possibilities of Armenia", US presidential adviser John Bolton questioned the use of this tool. The American diplomat also questioned the privileged position of Moscow as a weapon supplier to Azerbaijan and Armenia. October 24-26, a delegation of the US Department of State headed by the President's Adviser on National Security John Bolton visited Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The visit was preceded by Bolton's talks in Moscow. Russian experts, in general, described the Caucasian tour of the Adviser as contrary to the interests of the Russian Federation, evidence of the activation of the US policy towards the Caucasus. Moscow's nervous reaction was primarily due to questions raised by Bolton in Yerevan. Nevertheless, according to the analyst even the replacement of Russian weapons with American weapons is incapable of resolving the problem. In his opinion, US interest in arms supplies will most likely lead to an arms embargo on both sides of the Karabakh conflict. The arms embargo obligatory for all the OSCE countries on arms supply to Armenia and Azerbaijan will serve as a stabilizing factor and will limit Moscow's ability to manipulate the conflicting parties.
"In Yerevan, Bolton stressed the extreme importance of Armenia's realization of its full sovereignty, independence of the country from excessive foreign influence, and also the discrepancy with the reality of the cliche on" Russia's indispensability for Armenia's security. "This demonstrated that the US interest in Armenia is more caused by the Washington's intention to reduce Russian influence in the county rather than by Iran", the analyst believes. At the same time, a statement issued on October 29 by the Russian Foreign Ministry accusing Bolton of "interfering in Armenia's affairs and trying to drive a wedge between the allies" demonstrated Moscow's determination to continue to keep Armenia in system dependence. This reaction is expected and not surprising. Moscow doesn't want a change in Armenia's relations with the United States and the reasons for this reluctance are evident "Abrahamyan concluded.