Wednesday, January 9 2019 11:33

ArmInfo.By increasing the cost of gas for Armenia, Moscow demonstrates pragmatism towards other partners, primarily Belarus. This opinion was expressed by ArmInfo  energy security expert Vahe Davtyan.

"It is appropriate to note the continuing decline in oil prices in  recent months from $ 85 to $ 55 per barrel, as a result of which many  exporters of oil and gas were forced to compensate for oil losses due  to higher gas prices. And, faced with problems in the European market  the appearance of liquefied natural gas from the United States,  Gazprom, is no exception here. Thus, Moscow's problems in foreign  markets were voluntarily or unwittingly projected onto Russian gas  that buys until 2019 at a price lower than market Armenia. Thus,  informing the importing countries about the impossibility of  discounts on the gas supplied, "said Davtyan.

December 31, Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reported on the  upcoming price hike for Russian gas for Armenia. At the same time, he  expressed confidence in maintaining domestic tariffs for consumers at  the same level, in fact, at the expense of the Gazprom Armenia  margin. Today, Gazprom's wholly-owned subsidiary sells gas to the  population for $ 290 per thousand cubic meters. On the same day,  Gazprom announced the gas price increase for Armenia at the border  from $ 150 to $ 165 per thousand cubic meters.  In the light of such  realities, the expert is not inclined to associate the change in the  gas tariff at the border with a change of leadership in Armenia or  any other political factors directly related to Armenia. 

According to his estimates, otherwise, the increase in the price of  "blue fuel" would not be limited to the border and, of course,  projected onto internal pricing. Nevertheless, Davtyan considers the  solution of the gas problem inside Armenia only temporary, since the  risks of serious pressure on the socio-economic life in the republic  in the long run are still high. In this regard, the expert does not  exclude the possibility of the formation over time of the next gas  debt of Armenia to Russia in order to compensate for the increase in  prices at the border in the country. However, according to the press  secretary of the Prime Minister of Armenia Arman Egoyan, gas tariffs  for consumers will remain at the same level solely "by reducing costs  and increasing efficiency" of Gazprom Armenia. 

According to him, subsidies are out of the question. Meanwhile,  according to analysts of ArmInfo, even in the face of rising gas  prices at the border to $ 165 per thousand cubic meters, there is a  potential for lowering domestic tariffs. First of all, this is due to  a significant decrease, if not complete leveling.  corruption risks  around gas pricing as a result of the same change of power in  Armenia. In this regard, the new government, apparently, has already  voiced its demands to the Russian company in the light of the changed  rules of the game. And the material tax violations already identified  as a result of recent inspections by Gazprom Armenia are the best  confirmation of this. And, judging by the statement of Pashinyan and  his spokesman about the invariance of domestic tariffs, these  requirements are taken into account in one way or another by Gazprom.  In this light, the increase in gas prices at the border seems to be  the most acceptable compromise for both parties.