ArmInfo. The keystone to the success of the "Make a step, refuse Serzh" movement is a clear targeted ultimatum, accompanied by an individual, explanatory work in the deputy offices. Manvel Sargsyan, director of the Armenian Center for National and Strategic Studies, expressed his opinion to ArmInfo.
"If someone interferes, someone else needs to work with him, and no provocations of power will help her, in this case everything will work against her, even interference of external forces will not change the situation." Russia will intervene, bring in troops to Armenia, but one day, under the pressure of the people, the Russians will inevitably leave and then they will lose Armenia completely. "A vivid example - how many years they tormented the Karabakh people, but then they left and finally lost Karabakh," he recalled.
According to him, the existing conditions - the absence of a clear address ultimatum, already contain a negative scenario, contain rudiments of failure. Regardless of everything else. However, there is also the second version: self-seekers simply can run away. In his opinion, the weaker the authoritarian regimes' camp is the 100% contingent of self-seekers. And such power at the same time keeps on being self- indulgent and disintegrates from self-seeking.
Meanwhile, self-seekers, according to Sargsyan's forecasts, can simply misunderstand the situation. So, today only one deputy, Armen Rustamyan, came to the parliament to discuss the current situation, all the others have already hid. "And this is in a situation when they are not yet threatened, when they have not even received an ultimatum." Imagine what would have happened if they had received it, "he stressed.
Serzh Sargsyan, according to the analyst, understands the situation, which is already expressed in attempts to disperse the protesters. However, nothing else remains to him - he must in every possible way frighten, with an army, Putin something else, demanding from the deputy corps full obedience on voting on asserting himself in the post of prime minister. "I am sure that he is only concerned about this now, and that's the only thing he does, and the absence of an ultimatum to this very corps makes the task of Sargsyan much easier. It would be an ultimatum they would instantly put it on his table and demanded clear guarantees of their own immunity ultimatum, those would already be contained," he said.
Rationality, in the opinion of the analyst, is always a victory. And there was not a single case in history when a rationally thinking people would not have won. Sargsyan is convinced that no police will ever protect 70 self-proclaimed deputies forever, she can protect them for 3-4 days, 10 days, and then an imminent end comes. Therefore, the police, in his opinion, should also carry out conscientious work, the rudiments of which have already been laid down by a clear line defined by the police with respect to the police - "policemen are our friends, not enemies."