Friday, April 6 2018 16:20

ArmInfo. Elections in Azerbaijan, the end of President Serzh Sargsyan's term in Armenia, as well as the cooperation of the US and Russia can create conditions  for the resolution of the conflict in Karabakh.

As DW reports, this opinion was expressed by foreign experts who  participated in the Round Table in Brussels, dedicated to the  Karabakh problem.

Nevertheless, the analyst of the Center for Regional Studies David  Shahnazaryan expressed the opinion that the parties have never been  so far from the peace agreement as today. "I think the possibility of  a new war is still very high," he said.

Other participants of the roundtable agreed that such a risk still  exists. There are many reasons for concern over the possible  continuation of the conflict, because the parties not only  strengthened their military presence on the contact line, but also  the militaristic moods in the society grow both in Armenia and  Azerbaijan, the round table participants noted. However, not all were  pessimistic.

Thus, the director of the British analytical center LINKS Denis  Sammut sees the possibility of progress in the peace negotiations. To  this end, according to him, appropriate conditions are necessary  within Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as at the international level.  For both countries, next week will be filled with important political  events.

"The presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan on April 11.  They should have been held this autumn, but the current head of state  Ilham Aliyev postponed the date of their holding, observers expect  that Aliyev will be re-elected and will go on his fourth term, now  not five years but seven years And the second and last presidential  term of Serzh Sargsyan will end on April 9. However, he is expected  to remain in power, thanks to the constitutional referendum of 2015.  Changes in the Basic Law of Armenia turn Armenia into a parliamentary  a republic where the power will be concentrated in the hands of the  prime minister, who, most likely, will become Sargsyan, "DW notes.

"The leaders of both countries will have unprecedented political  power and space to work on the (Karabakh - Ed.) issue if they want,"  Sammut said. He admits that before the previous elections there were  already suggestions that after them everything would change. The  expert believes the current situation is somewhat different and  therefore says: "Now the moment when something can happen, something  positive ... The next six to eight months will be important, and we  can see a movement that has not been so far".

Zaur Shiriyev, a member of the Crisis Group, an organization like  LINKS, engaged not only in analytics, but also contributing to the  settlement of conflicts, is less optimistic. But he does not rule out  possible progress. At the same time, the expert points out that the  Azerbaijani government expects results from the authorities in the  resolution of the Karabakh issue, and that both countries will  celebrate this year the 100th anniversary of the founding of the  republics in their territories.

Although the situation at the international level is not so  favorable, given the difficult relations on several other issues  between the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs for the Karabakh conflict  settlement - Russia, the United States and France, they have mutual  understanding within the framework of cooperation on  Nagorno-Karabakh, experts say.

Thus, David Shahnazaryan points to the change in Moscow's position  last summer. If before that the Kremlin was ready to take steps and  without consulting with other co-chairs, in the past about eight  months there has been "very close cooperation." "In the current  geopolitical situation, there are not so many formats where the US  and Russia can work with each other, and this is one of such sites,"  the expert points out, and calls it one of the reasons for stability  on the line of contact.

The possibility of such cooperation is recognized by Sammut, while  adding: US representatives and earlier said that relations with  Russia in the Minsk Group are different from other spheres. In  addition, Russia's relations with another player in the region-Turkey  are now positive.

According to political scientist Andrei Makarychev, who teaches at  the University of Tartu, Moscow's main interest is the preservation  of the status quo. Therefore, it tries to keep Baku from a military  solution. And the authorities of the Russian Federation are trying to  convey to Yerevan that Russian troops in this country will act only  in case of threat to the internationally recognized territory of  Armenia, explained Makarychev.  And also Moscow is trying to keep  Yerevan from too strong a pro-Western orientation.

Despite the fact that the EU is gaining increasing importance in the  South Caucasus, nevertheless, says Sammut, neither Baku nor Yerevan  want the direct participation of the EU in the conflict settlement  and does not give Brussels a big role in this matter.

Therefore, the participants of the event urged the EU to more clearly  define its approach to the region. And if we are not talking about  joining the Minsk Group, then at least it is necessary to hold  meetings with its co-chairs and strengthen the mandate of the EU  special representative for the South Caucasus, experts noted.

Meanwhile, Shiriyev warns that if the next escalation occurs, then it  will be more extensive. According to him, in 2016, battles were  limited both territorially and in the number of troops and equipment  involved.  "The next escalation," April plus, "will be more  devastating than what happened two years ago," - cautions the expert.