Arminfo.info



 Friday, May 12 2017 11:57
David Stepanyan

View from Berlin: Karabakh conflict settlement is up to future generations

View from Berlin: Karabakh conflict settlement is up to future generations

ArmInfoGerman political expert Alexander Rahr, the Research Director of German-Russian Forum and the Board member at Union of Russian Economy in Germany, in his interview to ArmInfo speaks about new threats and challenges of South Caucasus Security, comments on the probability of  Karabakh conflict defrosting and  on Russian policies in respect to Caucasus.

In Your opinion, which dimensions from do the main challenges and threats come for the security of South Caucasus?

On the one hand, the main challenges and threats to the security of the South Caucasus, of

course, come from unresolved territorial issues. On the other hand, from the conflicts over Iran's nuclear program. Another threat is the transfer of the problems of the Near and Middle East, the ideology of Islamization, military and geopolitical aspects to the South Caucasus region. The South Caucasus, unfortunately, is a very explosive region, while in the short and medium term there is an even more dangerous region - the Middle East

What’s the position of Karabakh Conflict in all these threats, is it of a first priority or accents have been somewhat replaced? 

Тhese three regional calls are very difficult to prioritize, given that all three have the prospect

of becoming the main, and at any moment. Nagorno-Karabakh is a problem for Armenia and Azerbaijan,I recall the existence of South Ossetia, while in Abkhazia everything will be all right. At that, it is necessary to remember that the intensification of military actions in Syria, the collapse of Iraq at any time can lead to serious consequences in Turkey or the South Caucasus region. How it will look exactly, to say today is difficult,  but noting the need to understand that in a region in which for years a war is going on, radical ideologies are faced, warring not for life,

but to death, there are very big challenges and problems. All these challenges and problems could not be unfelt by neighboring countries, spreading instability on them. Rahr assesses

the process as a circling earthquake. In this light, the current US administration has taken a very tough line on Iran. And if Donald Trump manages to disarm or achieve sufficient success in North Korea's containment policy, he will inevitably take up Iran. This will immediately lead to an even more militarization of the already militarized South Caucasus." It is very difficult in this

situation, of course, for Armenia to have with Iran, and with Russia, too, the best relations among all the countries of the South Caucasus. Such a potential is preserved, its echoes will continue to overflow into the South Caucasus for a long time.

Do you see any prospective of Izraeli – Azerrbaijani alliance capsulation in the case of implementation of military scenario in respect to Azerbaijan? How could that impact, for instance,  the Karabakh conflict ?

In Europe and Germany are very interested in maintaining the Karabakh conflict in a calm state,

so that no explosions like the explosion in April last year did not happen. In this direction, including German diplomats, a very serious work is underway. We do not need another war in the post-Soviet space, a war in which the nuclear power will be drawn-Russia, which already

has enough problems with Ukraine and Europe, all efforts should be made to preserve it, at least in the frozen state. The Karabakh conflict will be resolved only by the next generations of Armenian and Azerbaijani politicians, considering this generation is unable to solve it. ccording to him, the current leadership of Armenia lives in the spirit of the Karabakh idea. The leadership of Azerbaijan is mainly represented by the children of the participants of the Karabakh war. Therefore, even without being a great specialist in Karabakh, I see that it does not solve this generation, and I am not saying this because I am going to put oil in the fire, on the contrary, in the example of Germany I can say that the post-war and even the next generation could not solve the issue of reunification of our country. The West German position in this sense always looked like Taiwan and Hong Kong - to wait for reunification exclusively by peaceful means. By solving the problem by the generation sufficiently remote from the hot, bloody events of the

past and therefore able to solve it cold-bloodedly, deliberately, by searching and finding compromise solutions.

 

From the pint of hybrid wars area expanding from the territories of Ukraine and Iraq, the unsettled Karabakh conflict appears as a great deal of  temptation. Could be an attempt made to defrost it in the context mentioned?

I very much hope that attempts to warm up the Karabakh conflict in the above-mentioned context will not be undertaken, although such a threat is certainly visible. Of course, there exists the possibility of building the most diverse geopolitical strategies based on the most varied, often unjustified ambitions, but I am convinced that in the situation in which the world is today, against the background of the danger of the resumption of the conflict over Iran, this would be wrong and unproductive. I live in the western information space, where Nagorno Karabakh does

not play the role it plays in your space, we look with horror at what can happen on the Korean peninsula, the collapse of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, the migration flows to Europe and the problems that await us in this regard, therefore, for Europe the most important thing is to search for any opportunities that allow to avoid conflicts.

Recently a new shipment of combat attack armament, i.e. BTR 82A armored vehiclse, has been exported to Azerbaijan from Russia. Could You please estimate the reasons and goals of Moscow’s armament polices?

Russia's position on this issue is not simple enough. It should be remembered that Moscow cannot and should not be an arbitrator between Azerbaijan and Armenia and is hampered by strategic allied relations with Armenia, while at the same time in the energy issues Russia is quite dependent on relations and cooperation with Azerbaijan And the preservation of relations established with the Azerbaijani elite comes from economic and even large strategic interests of Russia. Therefore, Russian diplomacy in this and related issues should act with an eye on everything that may happen in the future. At the same time, Russian diplomacy, according to his estimates, is quite understandable. It cannot, despite its alliance with Armenia: a bilateral one and within the framework of the CSTO and the EEU, to act against Azerbaijan.  That is why Moscow's arms policy is clearly not only business, but also geopolitical interests. Of course, Azerbaijan is not a direct ally of Russia, but is its important strategic partner in a very complex global game that we are all observing today.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Official voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announcedOfficial voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announced
With With "demarcation" going at this rate it will reach Yerevan:  Pashinyan points out to Tavush residents the need to quickly transfer  4 villages to Azerbaijan
Pashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been providedPashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been provided
Stoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relationsStoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relations
Armenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec GenArmenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec Gen
Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists 
Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!
Higher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premierHigher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premier
Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries 
Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian 
U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden 
Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities 
Moscow Moscow "testing" its relations with Yerevan
Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep 
Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan 
Three Sad Stories about FraudstersThree Sad Stories about Fraudsters
Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification 
Opposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MPOpposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MP
Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023
Peter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EUPeter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EU
Azerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied ArtsakhAzerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied Artsakh
Zatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEUZatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEU
Basic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFABasic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFA
Oppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTOOppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTO
Foreign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to AzerbaijanForeign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to Azerbaijan
Foreign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month agoForeign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month ago
Statue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in MarseilleStatue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in Marseille
Armenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los AngelesArmenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los Angeles
Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan 
Turkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperationTurkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperation
Senior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  AnkaraSenior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  Ankara
Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement  Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement
Our main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei SergeenkoOur main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei Sergeenko
AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year 
Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker 
European Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and ArmeniaEuropean Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and Armenia
Armenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirementsArmenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirements
Artsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authoritiesArtsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authorities
4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister
Defense Minister: Defense Minister: "Nobody gave the order not to open fire"
Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus 
Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO 
Armenia hosting Francophonie Days Armenia hosting Francophonie Days 
Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan 
South Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s prioritiesSouth Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s priorities
Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador 
EU applies anti-Russian EU applies anti-Russian "geopolitical optic" everywhere - Russian  official 
Deployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  HovhannisyanDeployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  Hovhannisyan
Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality 
PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1
Pashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with MoscowPashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with Moscow
Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process 
At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh 
Pashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in KarabakhPashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in Karabakh
Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan 
Yerevan is ready to expand its agenda with BrusselsYerevan is ready to expand its agenda with Brussels
Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.
Yerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - PashinyanYerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - Pashinyan
If Armenia`s borders are If Armenia`s borders are "red line" for CSTO, let them demonstrate it  - Pashinyan
Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum 
Read more



Commented